| Author(s) | Frederick Engels |
|---|---|
| Written | 2 September 1891 |
(FROM A LETTER TO PAUL LAFARGUE)][1]
London, September 2, 1891
THE BRUSSELS CONGRESS
We have every reason to be satisfied with the Brussels Congress.
It was right to vote for the exclusion of the anarchists: that is where the old International broke off, that is where the new one resumes. It is quite simply the confirmation, nineteen years later, of the resolutions of the Hague Congress. [2]
No less important was the way the door was thrown wide open to the English TRADES UNIONS. The step which shows how well the situation has been understood. And the votes which tied the TRADES UNIONS to "the class struggle and the abolition of wage-labour" mean that it was not a concession on our part.
The Domela Nieuwenhuis incident has shown that the European workers have finally left behind the period of the domination of the resounding phrase, and that they are aware of the responsibilities incumbent on them: they are a class constituted as a party of "struggle" , a party which reckons with "facts". And the facts are taking an increasingly revolutionary turn.
THE SITUATION IN EUROPE
In Russia there is already famine; in Germany there will be famine in a few months; the other countries will suffer less. This is why: the harvest deficit for 1891 is estimated at eleven and a half million hectolitres of wheat and between 87 and 100 million hectolitres of rye. The latter deficit will, therefore, mainly affect the two rye-consuming countries, Russia and Germany.
This guarantees us peace until the spring of 1892. Russia will not make a move before then; so, excepting some inconceivable foolishness on the part of Paris or Berlin, there will be no war.
On the other hand, will tsarism survive this crisis? I doubt it. There are too many rebel elements in the big cities, and particularly in St. Petersburg, for them not to attempt to seize this opportunity to depose that alcoholic Alexander III, or at the very least to place him under the control of a national assembly. Perhaps he himself will be forced to take the initiative in convening one. Russia—that is to say, the government and the young bourgeoisie—has worked enormously hard to create a big national industry (see Plekhanov's article in the Neue Zeit[3] ). This industry will be stopped dead in its tracks because the famine will close down its only market—the domestic market. The Tsar will see the results of making Russia a self-sufficient country independent of abroad: to the crisis in agriculture will be added an industrial crisis.
In Germany the government will decide too late, as usual, to abolish or suspend the duty on corn. That will break the protectionist majority in the Reichstag. The big landowners, the "rurals",[4] will no longer want to uphold the duties on industrial products, they will want to buy as cheaply as possible. So we shall probably see a repetition of what happened at the time of the vote on the Anti-Socialist Law[5] ; a protectionist majority, by itself divided by conflicting interests arising out of the new situation, which finds it impossible to reach agreement on the details of a protectionist system. All the possible proposals being only minority ones; there will be either a reversion to the free trade system, which is just as impossible, or dissolution, with the old parties and the old majority unseated and replaced by a new free-trade majority opposed to the present government. That will mean the real, definitive end of the Bismarck period and of political stagnation in home affairs — I am not speaking here of our party but of parties which might "possibly" govern. There will be strife between the landed nobility and the bourgeoisie, and between the industrial bourgeoisie , which is protectionist, and the men of commerce and a fraction of the industrial bourgeoisie who are free traders. The stability of the administration and of domestic politics will be shattered, in short there will be movement, struggle, life , and our party will reap all the rewards. And if events take this turn, our party will be able to come to power round about 1898.
There we have it! I do not speak of the other countries because the agricultural crisis does not affect them so severely. But if this crisis in agriculture were to unleash in England the industrial crisis which we have been awaiting for twenty-five years.. . Then we'll see!
F. Engels