| Author(s) | Friedrich Engels |
|---|---|
| Written | 22 December 1882 |
ENGELS TO AUGUST BEBEL
IN LEIPZIG
London, 22 December 1882
Dear Bebel,
I hope you will be set free the day after tomorrow for 24 hours and thus have no difficulty in getting hold of this note.
All that was meant by the bit you found mystifying in my last letter[1] was that I expected the repeal of the Exceptional Law[2] to be brought about by events either of a revolutionary nature themselves (e.g. a fresh coup or the convocation of a national assembly in Russia, whose repercussions on Germany would at once become apparent), or those which at any rate would give impetus to the movement and pave the way for revolution (change of monarch in Berlin, death or resignation of Bismarck), either of which would almost inevitably usher in a 'new era'.
The crisis in America would seem to me, like the one over here and like the pressure on German industry that has not yet lifted everywhere, to be not a crisis proper, but the after-effect of overproduction dating back to the previous crisis. On the last occasion the crash in Germany came prematurely because of the milliard racket, whereas here and in America it came at the proper time, in 1877. But never, during a period of prosperity, had the productive forces been so expanded as in the years between 1871 and 1877, hence, as in 1837-42, the chronic pressure here[3] and in Germany on the main branches of industry, especially cotton and iron; the markets are still not able to absorb all those products. Since American industry is, in the main, still working for the protected home market, a local interim crisis may very easily arise there, in consequence of the rapid increase in production, but ultimately it will only serve to hasten the time when America becomes capable of exporting and of entering the world market as England's most dangerous competitor. Hence I do not believe — and Marx shares my view[4] — that the real crisis will come very much before it is due.
I would consider a European war to be a disaster; this time it would prove frightfully serious and inflame chauvinism everywhere for years to come, since all peoples would be fighting for their own existence. All the work done by the Russian revolutionaries, who are on the eve of victory, would be ruined and set at nought; our party in Germany, temporarily overwhelmed by the tide of chauvinism, would be dispersed, while exactly the same would happen in France. The only good thing that might come of it would be the setting-up of a Little Poland — which would also and automatically ensue from revolution; a Russian constitution resulting from a disastrous war would have an import, probably of a conservative nature, quite different from one forcibly imposed by revolutionary means. Such a war would, I believe, retard the revolution by 10 years, at the end of which, however, the upheaval would doubtless be all the more drastic. Incidentally, there has again been a prospect of war. Bismarck has been flaunting the Austrian alliance just as he did the South German alliances at the time of the Luxembourg affair in 1867.[5] Whether anything will come of this in the spring remains to be seen.
We found your reports on the state of German industry most interesting, in particular the express confirmation that the cartel agreement between the ironmasters had collapsed. It could not possibly last, least of all between German industrialists for whom the pettiest fraudulence is the very breath of life.
We haven't as yet seen the things by Meyer[6] and what you say is therefore news to us. That Marx would figure alongside his cardinals was only to be expected; Meyer always derived quite exceptional pleasure from proceeding direct from Cardinal Manning to Marx, nor did he ever fail to mention the fact.
In his Sociale Briefe Rodbertus was hot on the scent of surplus value, but that was as close as he got. Otherwise it would have put paid to his thoughts and endeavours as to how best to help the debt-ridden country Junkers, something the good man surely could not have wished. But as you say, he is worth infinitely more than the majority of German vulgar economists, including the armchair socialists[7] who after all live solely off our leavings.
The story of Carlchen's[8] wooing was also new to us. The wedding, or so I have been told by eye-witnesses, was a most mournful affair, so much so that someone who was present at the civil ceremony exclaimed: C'est l'enterrement de M!
Yesterday I sent off to Zurich the final ms. for the pamphlet, namely an appendix on the constitution of the Mark and a short history of the German peasantry generally.[9] Since Maurer writes very badly and confuses many things, it is difficult to track down what you want at the first reading. As soon as I get the proofs I shall send you the thing, which contains, not simply abstracts from Maurer, but indirect criticism of him, as also much else that is new. These are the first-fruits of long years of study devoted to German history, and I am delighted at being able to present it first of all to the workers rather than to schoolmasters and other 'eddicated' gents.
Now I must stop, for otherwise I shall not be able to register the letter in time to catch the evening post. The Prussians would not as yet seem to have reached the stage of Stiebering[10] registered letters, all of which have so far arrived in proper condition. I have by long practice acquired a pretty shrewd eye for such things.
I should be glad if your wife[11] would kindly accept the enclosed Christmas card and the compliments of the season.
Your
F. E.